Sharp surge in foreign trade ( 2003-08-12 09:05) (China Daily)
China's foreign trade
weathered the SARS outbreak and continued robust growth in both exports and
imports during the January-July period, customs statistics show.
China's foreign trade totalled US$450.74 billion in the first seven months of
2003 -- up 37.9 per cent over the same period last year. But experts believe the
impact of SARS on China's foreign trade will gradually show up in the second
half of the year, causing a slowdown in trade growth.
Exports rose 33.4 per cent to US$228.41 billion and imports increased by 42.9
per cent to US$222.33 billion from January to July.
The US$6.08 billion trade surplus for the January-July period beat many
economists' expectations that the SARS outbreak in mid-April would put heavy
pressure on China's exports.
The foreign trade volume in July registered a monthly record of US$74.62
billion, but Li Yushi, a senior foreign trade expert from the Chinese Academy of
International Trade and Economic Co-operation, believes the long-term impact of
the SARS epidemic has yet to surface in the foreign trade sector given the time
lag between placing orders and delivering goods.
A group study by the academy predicts monthly export growth in the third and
fourth quarters will decrease by 10 per cent and 5-8 per cent respectively
compared with the first half, Li said. The sharp decrease in signed contracts
and realized orders during the SARS outbreak was the main reason for the
slowdown, he added.
Trade barriers that were deliberately erected by some countries during the
period also increased export costs.
Strong economic measures should be taken to tackle the deferred negative
impact of SARS on China's foreign trade and overseas economic co-operation, Li
said. In fact, governments at all levels are expected to hold more export fairs
and exhibitions and the central government has promised to accelerate payment of
tax rebates to exporters.
Meanwhile, Minister of Commerce Lu Fuyuan has announced a shift in government
policy, encouraging domestic companies to increase their imports. And according
to Zhang Xiaoji, an expert from the State Council's Development and Research
Centre, the fact that import growth outpaced that of exports is notable. "The
policy turnaround is a result of the nation's ample foreign-exchange reserves
and the government's desire to promote world economic growth,'' Zhang said.
Big tariff cuts since China's entry to the World Trade Organization (WTO)
also contributed to the high increase in imports, said Zhang.
Lu forecast at the Fifth Asia-Europe Economic Ministers' Meeting hold in
Dalian in Northeast China's Liaoning Province last month that China's imports
over the next three years will be worth US$1 trillion, making it the world's
second largest purchaser behind only the United States.
Lu indicated he is not at all worried about the over-40 per cent
faster-than-expected growth in imports in the first half of this year, or a
probable resulting trade deficit this year, which China has not seen since the
1997 Asian financial crisis.
